For nearly a decade, “Canada” was almost synonymous with “study abroad” for lakhs of Indian students, including thousands from Kerala. Affordable tuition compared to the US and UK, a clear path from study permit to work permit to permanent residency, and a reputation for being welcoming to newcomers made it the default first choice on every student’s shortlist.
But if you’ve been following the news over the last two years, you already know something has shifted. Processing times have stretched, approval rates have dropped, and the once-reliable “study now, settle later” pathway looks a lot more uncertain. So the question students and parents are asking today is a fair one: is Canada still worth it?
To answer that, it helps to understand exactly what changed, why it changed, and what it means for someone planning to apply in 2026.
The Golden Rush: 2019–2023
Between 2019 and 2023, Canada saw one of the fastest expansions of its international education sector in its history. The number of international students in the country grew from roughly 4 lakh to well over 10–12 lakh, spread across universities, colleges, and private career institutions. Indian students made up the largest single group, accounting for close to 40% of all study permit holders by the end of this period.
Several factors fuelled this boom: a demand-driven system with no cap on intake, aggressive recruitment by private colleges (some offering little more than a pathway to a work permit), post-pandemic pent-up demand, and a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program that saw participation rise by over 200% between 2018 and 2023.
Cracks Beneath the Surface
Rapid growth on this scale doesn’t come without consequences, and Canada started to feel them acutely. Two sectors in particular came under visible strain:
- Housing — Rental markets in major student hubs like Toronto, Brampton, and parts of British Columbia saw sharp price increases, and stories of students sleeping in shelters or cramming into overcrowded basements made national headlines.
- Healthcare — Public healthcare systems, already stretched thin, faced added pressure from a fast-growing temporary resident population, feeding into longer wait times and staffing shortages in several provinces.
Alongside this, the government also flagged concerns about program quality. A number of private “diploma mills” were found to be enrolling students in low-value programs purely to offer them a route to a work permit, without genuine educational or employment outcomes. This raised questions about the integrity of the entire International Student Program.
The Government Steps In: A Timeline of Caps
Facing mounting political and public pressure, particularly around housing affordability, the Canadian government announced its first-ever cap on international student intake in January 2024 — a major departure from a system that had operated without limits for decades.
2024: The cap targeted approximately 360,000 new study permits, a 35% cut from 2023. Undergraduate and diploma-level students were affected most; master’s, doctoral, and K-12 students were initially exempt. The actual number of permits issued that year came in even lower, at around 267,890 — a roughly 48% drop from 2023.
2025: The cap was tightened by a further 10%, down to 437,000 total permits issued (including extensions). For the first time, master’s and doctoral students were folded into the cap as well, though with a reserved allocation. Approval rates fell sharply too — from around 51% to roughly 30% for new applications.
2026: The squeeze continued. IRCC now expects to issue up to 408,000 study permits in total for the year — a 7% drop from 2025 and 16% lower than 2024 — with only 155,000 of these going to newly arriving students and the rest to extensions for those already in Canada. The number of active study permit holders in the country has fallen from over 1 million in January 2024 to under 8 lakh by mid-2025.
The result of all this: Canada went from being one of the easiest countries to get a study visa for, to one where roughly two out of every three applications are being refused in some intake periods.
What’s Different for Students Applying Now
A few structural changes are worth understanding if you’re planning to apply in 2026:
- Provincial Attestation Letters (PAL/TAL): Most applicants now need a letter from their province confirming they fall within that province’s allocated quota — without it, the application won’t even be processed. Master’s and doctoral students at public institutions were exempted from this requirement starting January 2026.
- PGWP field-of-study rules: For non-degree (college diploma) programs, eligibility for the Post-Graduation Work Permit is now tied to a specific list of fields linked to labour market demand — meaning not every diploma leads to a work permit anymore. This list has been frozen for 2026, giving at least some short-term predictability.
- Language requirements for PGWP: College graduates applying for a PGWP now need to prove language proficiency (CLB/NCLC 7), aligning them with the requirements previously applied only to university graduates.
- Financial requirements: Proof-of-funds thresholds have gone up, meaning students need to show significantly more in living-cost savings than they did a few years ago.
Where the Demand Is Now
The overarching theme of these reforms is a shift from volume to value — Canada wants fewer students, but ones headed into fields the labour market actually needs.
During the boom years, business and management diplomas, hospitality, and general arts programs at private colleges were hugely popular largely because they offered a fast, low-cost route to a study permit and eventual work eligibility — not necessarily because of strong job prospects.
Now, the programs with the clearest pathway to a PGWP and, eventually, permanent residency sit in sectors facing genuine long-term labour shortages:
- Healthcare — nursing, allied health, and personal support work
- Skilled trades — construction, plumbing, electrical, and other apprenticeship-linked programs
- Technology — computer science, data, and engineering-adjacent programs
- STEM and research — particularly at the master’s and doctoral level, which the government is now actively trying to attract through exemptions and a new International Talent Attraction Strategy
Generic business diplomas at private colleges, on the other hand, have lost much of their earlier appeal, since many no longer guarantee PGWP eligibility.
So, Is Canada Still the Dream?
Canada hasn’t shut its doors — but it has narrowed them considerably, and it’s being far more selective about who walks through. For a student with a genuine academic profile, a program in a field the country actually needs, and realistic financial backing, Canada is still a strong option — arguably a more credible one now, since the market is no longer flooded with students in low-value programs chasing a shortcut to a work permit.
But the “safe bet, easy visa” version of Canada that existed between 2019 and 2023 is gone. Getting in today means choosing the right province, the right institution, and the right field of study — not just any admission letter that ticks a box.
For students from Kerala and across India still considering Canada, the dream is alive, but it now demands a far more strategic approach than it used to. That’s exactly where the right guidance, early planning, and an honest read of where the opportunities actually lie make all the difference.
Plan Your Canada Journey with Greenline Education Consultants
Navigating PAL/TAL requirements, PGWP-eligible programs, and shifting provincial quotas isn’t something to figure out on your own — especially when the margin for error has never been smaller. As one of the most trusted study abroad consultants in Kochi, Greenline Education Consultants has spent over 21 years helping students choose the right country, institution, and course for their goals — not just the fastest visa.
Established in 2004, Greenline has guided 50,000+ students toward world-class universities across the globe, with offices in Kochi, Trivandrum, and Canada. Our on-ground presence in Canada means we don’t just help you land — we stay with you through enrolment, settlement, and the post-study transition, with local, up-to-date insight into which programs and provinces still offer the strongest pathways.
If Canada is still on your list for 2026, talk to our counsellors before you shortlist a program. Visit our Kochi or Trivandrum office, or connect with our Canada team, and let’s build an application strategy that actually holds up under the new rules.